Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 0.041182 0.047040 0.053481 0.061097 0.069865 0.079656 0.091434
2024-12-22 0.031494 0.039239 0.048563 0.060646 0.075944 0.094735 0.119669
2024-12-29 0.027238 0.035999 0.047218 0.062705 0.083648 0.111143 0.150244
2025-01-05 0.022832 0.031621 0.043440 0.060604 0.085074 0.118981 0.170001
2025-01-12 0.019853 0.028622 0.040923 0.059585 0.087444 0.127910 0.191894
2025-01-19 0.017125 0.025568 0.037857 0.057230 0.087351 0.132962 0.208339
2025-01-26 0.016054 0.024780 0.037933 0.059443 0.094212 0.149021 0.243552
2025-02-02 0.015125 0.024071 0.038001 0.061569 0.101071 0.165722 0.281787
2025-02-09 0.014306 0.023427 0.038065 0.063634 0.107973 0.183154 0.323351
2025-02-16 0.013117 0.022042 0.036763 0.063231 0.110579 0.193502 0.353632
2025-02-23 0.012215 0.021038 0.035976 0.063592 0.114489 0.206457 0.390157
2025-03-02 0.011253 0.019830 0.034710 0.062941 0.116446 0.216005 0.421304
2025-03-09 0.010690 0.019295 0.034609 0.064463 0.122740 0.234586 0.473151
2025-03-16 0.009867 0.018209 0.033411 0.063813 0.124814 0.245342 0.510735
2025-03-23 0.009502 0.017935 0.033680 0.065994 0.132684 0.268443 0.577328
2025-03-30 0.008632 0.016615 0.031833 0.063775 0.131337 0.272494 0.603004
2025-04-06 0.007985 0.015668 0.030617 0.062700 0.132222 0.281272 0.640351
2025-04-13 0.007251 0.014480 0.028815 0.060216 0.129801 0.282592 0.660568
2025-04-20 0.007075 0.014408 0.029261 0.062550 0.138200 0.308832 0.743761
2025-04-27 0.006896 0.014314 0.029650 0.064794 0.146638 0.336151 0.833562
2025-05-04 0.006719 0.014207 0.029997 0.066973 0.155167 0.364689 0.930654
2025-05-11 0.006333 0.013612 0.029238 0.066548 0.157472 0.378536 0.991399
2025-05-18 0.006040 0.013199 0.028842 0.066929 0.161767 0.397778 1.069470